Best Bets: UFC 283

The Fight Analyst didn’t start the new year so hot going 0-2. He is looking to rebound this weekend at UFC 283.

The UFC finally came back after the long hiatus to deliver a night of great fights. We saw two Middleweight contenders battle it out for 25 minutes as Sean Strickland out brawled Nassourdine Imavov to a unanimous decision victory. 

Up next, is the first PPV event of 2023 and it’s a good one. We have not one but two title fights on tap with the light heavyweight championship and the men’s flyweight title on the line. With that said, let’s take a look at the Best Bets for UFC 283.

Johnny Walker vs. Paul Craig

In the light heavyweight division, we have a banger of a fight as #12 Johnny Walker (19-7) takes on #9 Paul Craig (16-5-1). The winner could put themselves in a good position within the division.

Walker is coming off one of the better wins of his career against Ion Cutelaba. He showed that he’s a true mixed martial artist as utilized his grappling he sunk in a rear-naked choke. He’s going to need to show off that full set of skills against the very dangerous Paul Craig.

Craig didn’t have the same luck as Walker in his last fight, losing a unanimous decision victory to Volkan Oezdemir. He is dangerous everywhere the fight goes but is most dangerous once it hits the mat. Considering how powerful of a striker Walker is, Craig is going to need to get this fight into his wheelhouse on the mat to get the job done.

Even as great of a submission threat as Craig is, he has trouble getting the fight there as we saw in the Oezdemir fight. I believe Walker has good enough awareness and takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet and at distance. That is where Walker will be at his best and where he will knock out Craig inside two rounds.

The Fight Analyst’s Pick
Johnny Walker to win -190

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez

In the Welterweight division, we have a delight on our hands as Contender Series alumni Gabriel Bonfim (13-0) makes his debut against the super-tough Mounir Lazzez (11-2).

Bonfim is an undefeated prospect fighting out Brazil who’s been fighting all of his life. He was a Brazilian national boxing champ before turning over to MMA. He has thus rounded out his game nicely as his ground game might have overcome his striking as he has 10 wins via submission. 

Lazzez is a pure kickboxer with some heavy striking power and a great chin to go along with it. He has shown that he can hang with anyone on the feet as well on the mat. His octagon experience against high-level opponents will need to come in handy against Bonfim.

I am quite high on Bonfim coming into his UFC career. He has the striking background to compete with anyone on the feet and on the mat, his submission game is slick and can snatch them from anywhere. That’s why this fight is a very dangerous one for Lazzez to take, as he not only has to worry about the hands of Bonfim but also the submissions. Ultimately, Bonfim mixes things up well and doesn’t let Lazzez get going and takes a unanimous decision victory. 

The Fight Analyst’s Pick
Gabriel Bonfim to win -180

Ismael Bonfim vs. Terrance McKinney 

In the Lightweight division, we have a fight between another Contender Series alumni making his debut in Brazil’s Ismael Bonfim (18-3) taking on Terrance McKinney (13-4).

If you are wondering, yes Ismael Bonfim is the older brother of Gabriel Bonfim. This will be their fourth time fighting together on the same fight card and they are a perfect 3-0 when fighting together. Like his younger brother, Bonfim is also a Brazilian national boxing champion. He’s also very well-rounded as he has four wins via submission and eight via knockout.

McKinney has been absolutely wrecking machine since coming into his UFC debut. He is now 3-1 in the biggest promotion with all three wins coming inside the distance. McKinney may love to stand and trade with his opponents but it would be wise to utilize his wrestling and grappling background in this fight to get the job done.

This is a tough fight for both fighters and it is especially dangerous for McKinney because he has much more to lose than Bonfim. Bonfim is the newcomer coming into this fight with nothing to lose but a ton to gain if he beats someone as dangerous as McKinney. I expect McKinney to utilize his wrestling early but then once he doesn’t get the early finish he will start to fade and Bonfim takes over and gets the second or third-round knockout.

The Fight Analyst’s Pick
Ismael Bonfim to win +111