The Fight Analyst keeps his hot streak going as he went 3-0 (65-32) at UFC Vegas 65. Up next is one of the best fight nights of the year, let’s see who he’s got!
Before we get started, I want to wish a happy belated Thanksgiving to all! The UFC is coming off of a week’s hiatus after the holidays to bring us arguably the fight night card of the year at UFC Orlando. It is headlined by two of the best in the welterweight division in #6 Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland.
The rest of this 15-fight fight card is absolutely stacked from top to bottom with matchups like Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich, Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael Dos Anjos, and Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze to name a few. With that said, let’s take a look at The Fight Analyst’s Best Bets for UFC Orlando.
Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze
In the middleweight division, we have a fight between a mainstay at the top of the division in #8 Jack Hermansson and the surging Roman Dolidze.
Hermansson was originally slated to take on Derek Brunson until he had to pull out to due to injury. Now he is set to take on the dangerous Roman Dolidze on just two weeks’ notice. Hermansson will look to big brother his opponent and show that there are levels to this, much like he did against Chris Curtis in his last fight.
Dolidze is coming off the best performance of his career with a first-round knockout of Phil Hawes. He was very impressive in that fight and has shown signs of improvement in each and every fight. His newfound confidence will need to be in full force coming into this matchup against his toughest adversary yet.
A lot of people still underestimate Hermansson even after his most recent win. He has the ability to match Dolidze in every area in this fight. On the feet, in the grappling, and on the mat, I give Hermansson a slight edge. With that said, Dolidze is dangerous at every moment of the fight but if he doesn’t get the finish it’s hard for me to see him get the win. Ultimately, Hermansson makes Dolidze work harder than his last two opponents, shows that there are levels to this, and wins a convincing unanimous decision.
| The Fight Analyst’s Pick |
|---|
| Jack Hermansson to win -150 |
Amanda Ribas vs. Tracy Cortez
In the women’s flyweight division, we have a fight between two fighters looking to climb the rankings in Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez.
Ribas is coming into this fight only 1-2 in her last 3 fights, albeit losing two of the best fighters in their respective divisions. She has shown to have some trouble against elite strikers but luckily for her, her opponent Cortez is far from that.
Cortez has been on an absolute tear since bursting onto the scene. She is 4-0 in the biggest organization and is going against her stiffest competition to date in Ribas. Cortez’s stifling grappling game will need to play a major factor in this matchup to remain unbeaten inside the octagon.
This is a closely-contested matchup between these two flyweight contenders. On the feet, I would have to give a sizeable edge to Ribas. Meanwhile, in the grappling, I would give a slight edge to Cortez. With that said, as we saw in Cortez’s last fight against Melissa Gatto there are holes that a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt like Ribas could exploit. In the end, Ribas is able to defend the grappling onslaught of Cortez and outstrike her way to a decision victory.
| The Fight Analyst’s Pick |
|---|
| Amanda Ribas to win -125 |
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tai Tuivasa
In the co-main event, we have a banger in the heavyweight division as #4 Tai Tuivasa takes on #5 Sergei Pavlovich.
Pavlovich is coming off the biggest win of his career with a first-round knockout of Derrick Lewis. He quickly showed that he is a legitimate contender in the heavyweight division with his elite technical striking abilities. There aren’t many kickboxers that are as technical and as powerful as Pavlovich in the heavyweight division which will come in handy against the dangerous Tuivasa.
Tuivasa ran into a buzzsaw in his last fight when he had the daunted task of taking on Ciryl Gane. He ultimately was knocked out in the third round after a back-and-forth war with one of the division’s best strikers. Tuivasa possesses the power to knock out anyone in the division and that will need to be true come Saturday night.
This is another terrible stylistic matchup for Tuivasa. There are only a handful of matchups in the heavyweight division for Tuivasa and this is one of them. Pavlovich has the kickboxing pedigree and the size to keep him out of harm’s way when striking at a distance. Tuivasa will have trouble getting into range and I fully expect Pavlovich to catch him coming in and put him away inside two rounds.
| The Fight Analyst’s Pick |
|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich to win -200 |
