Daniel Vreeland, who is on the UFC ranking panel, previews and offers his favorite prop bets for UFC Vegas 46. UFC Vegas 46: Chikadze vs Kattar takes place on Saturday, January 15th, 2022. The main card begins at 7:00 PM EST, with the preliminary card starting at 4:00 PM EST.
Prop Bet #1: Collier/Sherman Total – 2.5 Rounds
The Why
Heavyweight contests typically seem all but given to end inside the distance. It’s the division with the highest finish rate by far. However, in this fight at UFC Vegas 46, we see a pair of guys who haven’t been doing much of that lately. Since coming back to the UFC, Sherman has finished just one fighter – Ike Villanueva, who was fighting up and out of his weight class. Ditto for Collier, who has seen just one fight avoid the cards in his last five, and that was a loss to Tom Aspinall by knockout.
While this insight usually would find us on the right end of the juicy lines, this one still appears to be destined to be a favorite. However, given recent results, I still think there’s a lot of value on this one.
Prop Bet #2: Ramiz Brahimaj – Win Method
The Why
This UFC Vegas 46 fight offers a bit of the old analogy of the unstoppable force facing the immovable object. On one hand, Brahimaj has never won a fight where he didn’t submit his opponent. He comes out looking for those takedowns and is vicious when attacking for the finish. On the other hand, he is facing a guy who has never been submitted and only ever been finished once in his career (by Santiago Ponzinibbio).
When it comes down to it, you pair the grappling abilities and general toughness of McGee and I think it’s enough to get him to survive. While Brahimaj might be on him like a hungry dog on a t-bone steak, this fight seems like it has decision all over it.
Prop Bet #3: Juarez/Demopoulos Total – 2.5 Rounds
The Why
For the first two fights I was all over decision. So logically, as we head to the UFC’s lightest division, why would I say anything else? Perhaps it’s because the two strawweights about to throw down at UFC Vegas 46 combine to have a 61% finish rate. Now, that’s far from being a stat that assures that a finish is coming – these aren’t heavyweight numbers by any means. However, with the line where it is at plus-money, you’re getting a great value for what you lay down.
Plus, if you feel like getting a little cute with it, Demopoulos does have a grappling background and Juarez is coming off of a submission loss. I think that’s a real possibility, but I simply like the under more here.
Prop Bet #4: Chookagian/Maia to Distance
The Why
Heavyweights hitting the over? Strawweights hitting the under? Cats and dogs living together? What’s next – a Chookagian finish prop?
Of course not. This fight is assuredly going to the judges’ scorecards. I know it, you know it, and even the bookmakers know it. The line has been over -300 since it posted but hasn’t wavered too far from there. Although it may not be that sexy prop that you like with wild odds, it’s definitely a safe one to make some money on this weekend at UFC Vegas 46.
Prop Bet #5: Joseph Holmes – Win Method
The Why
“Ugly Man Joe” makes his debut at UFC Vegas 46 in a fight with Jamie Pickett. If you count Contender Series Pickett is just 1-4 in front of the boss-man. A lot of this is due to his defensive grappling. Not only is he giving up 50% of the takedowns attempted, but there is a lot of top control time he surrenders. For instance, in his most recent fight with Laureano Staropoli, he only conceded one takedown, but was in bad positions for nearly five and a half minutes.
Although this didn’t cost him against the Argentine, Holmes has a great submission game. In seven fights, he has five submission wins. I’d almost be all about the submission prop here, but Holmes’ hands are also pretty good.
Most of the odds for these fights are razor close – so if you like any of these fighters, get it on them right away. You can also get the best odds for those fighters right here.
